The study of predicting which criminals are more likely to commit future crimes has been one of great interest for many years, and it’s given birth to computerized systems in the U.S. known as “criminal risk assessment tools.” Criminologists say there is a public interest in recognizing which individuals may be more dangerous before it is decided how long their sentence should be and when or whether they should be released.
Prior to the 1970s, these predictions routinely factored race, skin color and nationality. The following decade, as the country was in a midst of a crime wave, lawmakers imposed many mandatory minimum sentences and removed discretion from the hands of prosecutors and judges. That meant there was less important to evaluate individual offenders, but then states started grappling with overflowing prisons and jails. And that’s where criminal risk forecast has swung back into routine use.
As detailed in a recent ProPublica article, dozens of computerized risk assessments are being used nationally – including right here in Broward County. These programs made by for-profit firms weigh dozens of various factors. However, the researchers found that these scores have been cited repeatedly by judges at sentencing hearings, and what’s more, the results tend to be skewed along racial lines. Black defendants are often deemed to have a much higher risk assessment, even when the crimes are similar and the statistics are controlled for other factors. Continue reading